Day-ahead electricity prices across South-East Europe and Hungary moved sharply lower on 3 April, but the correction exposed a persistent structural split in the regional market, with core-linked hubs softening while southeastern zones continued to price at a clear premium.
Hungary’s HUPX front settled at €108.30/MWh, falling €27.5/MWh day on day, marking one of the steepest single-session declines in recent weeks. The move was mirrored across the western SEE perimeter, where Slovenia cleared at €104.99/MWh and Croatia at €108.90/MWh, both posting declines above €25/MWh.
The eastern complex, however, remained structurally tight. Romania, Bulgaria and Greece all cleared at €129.62/MWh, while Serbia’s SEEPEX settled at €122.72/MWh, preserving a €14–21/MWh premium over Hungary. Montenegro and North Macedonia also held firm, pricing above the HUPX benchmark at €116.23/MWh and €116.17/MWh, respectively.
This divergence confirms that the regional market is not moving as a single integrated block but continues to fragment along transmission constraints, import dependency, and localized supply-demand balances.
The underlying system dynamics point to a classic wind-driven softening rather than a structural demand collapse. Regional consumption fell to 34,217 MW, down 1,341 MW, reflecting milder temperatures across the SEE zone. At the same time, total generation dropped modestly to 33,354 MW, but the composition shift was decisive.
Gas-fired output declined sharply to 4,211 MW, down 1,040 MW, while wind generation surged to 5,018 MW, increasing 522 MW day on day. Hydro output also improved to 8,398 MW, reinforcing the reduction in marginal-cost pricing pressure. Solar, by contrast, slipped to 2,567 MW, indicating that intraday solar cannibalisation was not the primary driver of the price move.
The generation mix illustrates a system temporarily less dependent on high-cost thermal units. Hydro accounted for roughly 24% of supply, coal 18%, gas 12%, wind 15%, and nuclear 17%, with imports contributing 6% of the balance. This mix effectively reduced the clearing influence of gas, allowing prices to retrace from previous highs.
Despite the softer price environment, the region remained structurally import-reliant. Net imports rose to 2,913 MW, up 709 MW, with flows from the core direction (Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia) increasing to 4,524 MW, a rise of 1,095 MW.
This is a critical signal for traders. The price drop was not driven by oversupply within SEE, but rather by improved access to imported power and a temporary easing of thermal generation requirements. The southeastern premium persisted precisely because those markets remained more dependent on imports and less directly connected to the lowest-cost core supply.
The HU-DE spread widened to €23.67/MWh, even as Hungarian prices declined. This indicates that Germany remained significantly cheaper, and that Hungary continues to price in congestion, transmission limits, and regional balancing costs.
Intraday price structure reinforces the volatility narrative. Hungary recorded a minimum hourly price of €3.0/MWh and a maximum of €175.6/MWh, highlighting strong solar-induced midday compression followed by steep evening ramp pricing. Slovenia exhibited a similar profile, with lows near €1.7/MWh and highs above €135/MWh.
Romania, in contrast, maintained a significantly higher floor, with minimum prices close to €92/MWh, confirming tighter system conditions and reduced exposure to deep intraday price collapses. This structural firmness is consistent with its role as a balancing market within the southeastern cluster.
On the forward curve, the picture remains supportive of elevated pricing despite the spot correction. Austrian gas (CEGH) for May traded at €52.06/MWh, rising €1.3/MWh day on day, while carbon allowances (EUA Dec-26) eased slightly to €71.69/t.
Hungarian forward power contracts remain elevated, with Week 15 at €99.50/MWh, Week 16 at €114.50/MWh, May-26 at €97.50/MWh, and Cal-26 at €113.50/MWh. The persistence of these levels suggests that the market does not interpret the spot drop as a regime shift but rather as a short-term adjustment within a still-tight forward framework.
Coal forwards also remain firm, with API2 at €119/t for May-26 and €124.5/t for Q3-26, reinforcing the cost floor for thermal generation across the region.
Cross-border flow data further clarifies the structural imbalance. Romania, Serbia and Greece all remained net importers on the day, with Romania showing the largest deficit at approximately -1,073 MW, followed by Serbia at -651 MW. Hungary itself remained slightly import-dependent at around -191 MW, despite being more directly connected to core supply.
This persistent import reliance is the key reason why southeastern prices resisted convergence with Hungary, even during a broadly bearish session.
Weather forecasts point to a continued easing in demand. Temperatures across the region are expected to rise over the coming days, with Hungary moving toward 14°C, Serbia toward 14–15°C, and Romania toward 15°C. This should further reduce heating demand and keep consumption under pressure.
The short-term trading setup therefore remains asymmetrical. Core-linked hubs such as Hungary, Slovenia and Croatia are likely to remain the most responsive to bearish inputs, including wind generation and lower demand. In contrast, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and Serbia are expected to retain a structural premium unless import availability increases materially or local generation improves.
The session ultimately reflects a market that is rebalancing rather than weakening. Wind generation and milder weather provided the trigger for price declines, but structural constraints, import dependence, and regional fragmentation continue to define pricing behaviour across SEE.
The next directional move will depend less on absolute demand and more on whether the system can sustain lower gas burn. If wind output remains elevated and cross-border flows stay strong, further downside in HUPX and adjacent markets is likely. If not, the southeastern premium will persist, and the region will revert quickly to higher clearing levels.
