Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe eased for delivery on 25 June, but the move represented more of a technical correction than a structural shift in market conditions. The region remained clearly segmented between a high-priced Hungary–Romania axis, a lower-priced Greece–Bulgaria–North Macedonia cluster, and a set of import-dependent Western Balkan markets where cross-border flows continued to play a decisive role in marginal pricing.
Hungary once again set the upper boundary of the regional complex. The HUPX baseload settled at €175.72/MWh, down €25.00/MWh day on day, while Romania’s OPCOM followed closely at €171.62/MWh, a decline of €29.30/MWh. Despite the pullback, both markets remained the northern price anchors in SEE. Hungary still traded at a significant premium versus its neighbours, including a €42+ spread versus Germany and Austria and even wider differentials against Greece, Bulgaria and Serbia, reflecting ongoing congestion, evening scarcity and structural import dependence.
A broad correction was visible across Central and parts of Southeast Europe. Germany fell sharply to €133.54/MWh, while Austria declined to €132.95/MWh. Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia also moved lower, with CROPEX at €147.89/MWh and SEEPEX at €128.34/MWh. Bulgaria and Greece weakened to around €121/MWh, while North Macedonia remained the lowest-priced market at €117.96/MWh. In contrast, Albania and Montenegro moved against the regional trend, with prices rising to €140.46/MWh and €137.27/MWh, respectively, highlighting localized tightness and flow-driven volatility.
Despite softer baseload values, intraday volatility remained extreme. The hourly profile showed persistent midday solar pressure followed by expensive evening replacement demand. Hungary peaked at €506.70/MWh (H20) after dropping to a low of €38.10/MWh (H14), while Romania showed a similar swing between €472.00/MWh and €38.30/MWh. This confirms that the market is not simply weakening—it is becoming more sharply shaped, with deeper intra-day spreads defining trading opportunities.
Fundamental balances provided only partial relief. Regional consumption reached approximately 32.5 GW, while temperatures increased further to 26.7°C. The system remained a modest net importer, even as renewable output improved. Solar generation rose to 7.8 GW and wind to 2.16 GW, helping compress daytime prices but failing to remove evening scarcity. The structural pattern remains unchanged: oversupply during solar hours and tightness after sunset.
Cross-border flows continued to define market structure. Greece and Bulgaria remained the dominant exporters, while Croatia, Serbia, Romania and Hungary absorbed regional deficits. Greece exported over 1.2 GW, Bulgaria over 1 GW, reinforcing their role as southern supply hubs. On the import side, Croatia remained the most constrained market at over 1.1 GW, followed by Serbia, Romania and Hungary. These imbalances highlight how regional pricing is increasingly driven by transmission bottlenecks rather than purely domestic generation costs.
Bulgaria played a particularly important balancing role, exporting over 1 GW net, with significant flows into Romania and Serbia while simultaneously receiving power from Greece. This positioned Bulgaria as a key transit hub linking southern renewable surplus with northern demand centers. Greece, despite relatively low prices at around €121/MWh, continued to function as a major exporter, underscoring the strength of its generation stack and its role in regional equilibrium.
Serbia and Croatia remained structurally import-dependent. Serbia recorded a net short position of around 650 MW, with prices supported by a mix of southern imports and constrained domestic output. Croatia remained even tighter, importing over 1.1 GW, which kept CROPEX above most Balkan markets despite broader regional weakness. Slovenia, by contrast, moved into a small export position, contributing additional balancing capacity to the northern Adriatic zone.
Montenegro and Albania stood out as counter-trend markets. Montenegro’s price rose despite weaker regional signals, influenced by its complex trade dynamics with Italy and variable cross-border scheduling. Albania also strengthened slightly despite being a modest net exporter, indicating that local constraints and interconnection flows—not just national balance—are increasingly shaping pricing outcomes.
On the fuel side, there was little support for a sustained bearish move. Gas prices remained relatively stable, coal softened only marginally, and EUA carbon prices held steady. This confirms that the correction in power prices was driven primarily by renewable output, improved German and Austrian fundamentals, and shifting flow dynamics, rather than a material decline in thermal generation costs.
The forward curve, however, tells a different story. Hungarian Week 27 and monthly contracts continued to trade at a significant premium versus Germany, reinforcing the view that Hungary remains structurally exposed to tight evening conditions and import constraints. The widening Hungary–Germany spread suggests that forward markets still price persistent scarcity risk in the northern SEE corridor.
Overall, the signal for traders is a market defined by lower averages but persistent volatility and structural divergence. Daytime solar continues to depress prices, but evening scarcity, congestion and regional imbalances sustain high intraday spreads. Southern exporters such as Greece and Bulgaria remain system stabilizers, while Hungary, Romania, Serbia and Croatia continue to carry the burden of import exposure. The next phase of pricing will be shaped less by average demand and more by how effectively the region manages flexibility during peak evening hours.
