Electricity prices across southeastern Europe fell for September 30 delivery as forecasts showed stronger wind and solar output alongside lower demand, sharply reducing the region’s net import requirement. Italy largely resisted the decline, widening its premium over neighbouring markets.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead price dropped €24.50 to €145.63/MWh, while Romania’s OPCOM fell €25.60 to €144.31/MWh. Bulgaria recorded the largest absolute decline among the markets covered, with IBEX down €28 to €133.80/MWh.
The supply outlook improved substantially. Forecast average wind generation increased 1,519 MW to 6,206 MW, while solar rose 939 MW to 5,904 MW. Together, the two sources were expected to provide 12,110 MW, equivalent to about 42% of forecast regional consumption.
Demand was forecast to fall 353 MW to 29,112 MW. The combination of lower consumption and stronger renewable production coincided with a decline in the region’s projected net imports to just 88 MW, down from 725 MW a day earlier.
Flows remained substantial on individual borders despite the near-balanced regional position. Imports through the Austrian and Slovak interfaces were forecast at 1,003 MW, down 486 MW, while net exports towards Italy increased 124 MW to 1,326 MW.
Italy’s price slipped only €1.10 to €201.96/MWh, leaving it €56.33/MWh above Hungary, compared with roughly €32.93/MWh a day earlier. The widening differential strengthened the price incentive for deliveries towards Italy, although realised trading margins depend on transmission access and delivery costs.
Within southeastern Europe, prices continued to diverge sharply.
Serbia’s SEEPEX remained the cheapest market covered at €102.94/MWh, down €7.10 and €42.69/MWh below Hungary. North Macedonia’s MEMO fell €24.10 to €108.08/MWh, while Greece’s HENEX declined €12.40 to €109.57/MWh.
Montenegro’s BELEN dropped €15 to €115.92/MWh, maintaining a discount of about €29.71/MWh to Hungary. Albania’s ALPEX, however, eased only €1.10 to €146.47/MWh, placing it close to the Hungarian price and well above several southern neighbours.
Slovenia and Croatia remained more closely aligned with the higher-priced central European markets. Slovenia’s BSP fell €24.90 to €149.11/MWh, while Croatia’s CROPEX declined €24.80 to €147.98/MWh. Austria settled at €155.21/MWh and Germany at €140.75/MWh.
Hungary’s premium over Germany edged up to €4.88/MWh, even as both markets registered substantial declines. Romania traded just €1.32/MWh below Hungary, indicating much closer price alignment than the discounts seen in Serbia, Greece and North Macedonia.
Forward quotations also weakened, but continued to price electricity well above the latest Hungarian spot level. Hungarian week 41 power fell €7 to €195/MWh, week 42 declined €6 to €199/MWh, and October dropped €7 to €197.50/MWh.
The October quotation remained about €51.87/MWh above September 30 spot, showing that the day’s improved renewable balance had not removed the premium embedded in near-term delivery contracts.
Hungary’s week 41 forward spread over Germany widened €11 to €39/MWh, while the October spread edged up to €40/MWh. That divergence suggests the forward market continued to price a regional premium despite the broad decline in outright prices.
Gas quotations provided some additional relief. Austrian CEGH gas fell €3.10 to €71.64/MWh, while the Greek quotation declined €1.90 to €59.60/MWh. October gas dropped €3.50 to €71/MWh, but the fourth-quarter contract held at €74.50/MWh. EU carbon allowances eased €0.20 to €85.95/t.
The day’s figures point to a stronger renewable balance and reduced aggregate import dependence, but persistent price gaps leave cross-border access central to trading economics. Regional supply was close to matching demand; Italy still paid almost €100/MWh more than Serbia, while Hungarian October power remained near €200/MWh.
