Wholesale electricity prices increased across most Southeast European markets in the week to September 13, even as regional consumption declined, exposing the growing influence of renewable availability and cross-border capacity on short-term price formation.
Electricity demand across the monitored region fell 4.7% week on week to 17.67 TWh. Consumption decreased in almost every market, including Greece, Serbia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Hungary and Türkiye. Romania was the only country to record an increase, with demand rising 1% to 920.3 GWh.
The reduction in system load failed to translate into lower prices. Serbia registered the strongest increase, up 11.1% to €155.70/MWh, followed by Croatia, where the weekly average rose 8.5% to €176.34/MWh. Prices climbed 6.2% to €177.28/MWh in Romania, 4.6% to €177.31/MWh in Hungary and 2.5% to €166.96/MWh in Bulgaria.
Greece and Türkiye moved against the regional trend. The Greek average declined 3.2% to €155.32/MWh, while Türkiye fell 8.9% to €47.37/MWh, maintaining a substantial discount to the interconnected European markets.
Supply conditions provide the clearest explanation for the divergence between demand and prices. Wind and solar generation declined 7% to 3.66 TWh, removing around 270 GWh of low-marginal-cost electricity from the regional mix. Hydropower fell 2.1%, while thermal generation declined 1.8%.
Cross-border trading also weakened sharply. Net regional electricity flows contracted 23.2% to 0.94 TWh, limiting the ability of lower-priced markets to offset shortages elsewhere. Bulgaria increased exports, but Romania, Hungary and Croatia reduced their import positions.
The week demonstrated that demand is no longer the dominant short-term price signal in Southeast Europe. Renewable variability, dispatchable generation and the availability of interconnectors increasingly determine whether lower consumption produces cheaper electricity or merely reduces the scale of an otherwise tight market.
Elevated by Virtu.Energy
