Wholesale electricity prices moved sharply higher across Southeast Europe in Week 34, even as aggregate electricity consumption weakened, highlighting how generation availability rather than headline demand increasingly determines regional price formation during the summer.
Between 17 and 23 August, Greece recorded the strongest increase among the monitored markets, with its weekly day-ahead average rising 41.2% from Week 33 to €144.41/MWh. Bulgaria gained 16.9%, Türkiye 12.8%, Hungary 7.2%, Romania 6.6%, Croatia 6.5% and Serbia 5.8%. Italy was the only market to move lower, slipping 2.2% to €168.31/MWh, although it remained the most expensive market in the group. Hungary averaged €155.16/MWh, Croatia €153.78/MWh, Romania €152.54/MWh and Bulgaria €150.60/MWh.
The price increase becomes more significant when considered alongside the region’s consumption profile. Electricity demand across the markets covered by the report stood at 17,590 GWh, down 6.42% compared with Week 30. Italy’s demand declined 17.36%, Greece’s by 10.87% and Romania’s by 4.74%. Demand also edged lower in Bulgaria, Türkiye and Hungary. Serbia and Croatia were the principal exceptions, with increases of 13.54% and 14.33%, respectively.
The divergence between consumption and prices suggests that the regional market was being driven by a tightening supply stack rather than simple load growth. Variable renewable generation declined 11.0% compared with Week 30, largely because wind output fell 26.4%. Thermal generation also fell 13.07%, with gas-fired generation contracting by 30.32%. The available replacement capacity was therefore increasingly valuable during the periods when renewable production weakened.
The data also underline the importance of timing. Summer electricity systems with large solar fleets can show relatively comfortable conditions during daylight hours while becoming substantially tighter after sunset. The report’s hourly price chart shows a pronounced evening ramp across the region, with prices rising sharply after the midday trough. That means an apparently weak weekly demand balance can coexist with several highly constrained hours capable of setting the weekly price tone.
Week 34 therefore provides an important signal for Southeast European traders and generators. The market is becoming less responsive to aggregate consumption alone and more sensitive to the composition and timing of available supply. In a system increasingly influenced by variable renewables, the decisive question is no longer simply how much electricity consumers require, but which technologies are available when demand must be met.
