Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices remained elevated on Sept. 25 as a sharp fall in wind generation tightened regional balances and increased dependence on imports, while Hungary’s premium to Germany narrowed sharply.
Most SEE markets cleared above €200/MWh. Albania was the most expensive at €223.92/MWh, followed by Romania at €219.85/MWh and Hungary at €219.62/MWh. Bulgaria settled at €216.50/MWh, Greece at €213.62/MWh, North Macedonia at €211.32/MWh, Serbia at €207.90/MWh and Croatia at €205.84/MWh. Montenegro remained below the regional cluster at €190.98/MWh.
Daily price movements were uneven. HUPX fell €19.70/MWh and Romania dropped €12.70/MWh, while Greece surged €38/MWh. Serbia gained €20.20/MWh, North Macedonia rose €15/MWh and Albania added €13/MWh.
The central market driver was a deterioration in the regional generation balance.
Electricity consumption across Hungary and SEE increased to around 29.94 GW, while generation declined by more than 1.2 GW from the previous day. Net imports consequently increased by 886 MW to 3.57 GW, with imports from the Central European core rising by more than 500 MW to 2.73 GW.
Wind generation accounted for most of the tightening. Regional wind output plunged by almost 1.6 GW to 2.14 GW, a decline of more than 40% in a single session. Solar generation also eased to around 5.27 GW.
Dispatchable plants increased output but were unable to fully offset the renewable decline. Gas-fired generation rose by about 330 MW to 4.43 GW, while hydro increased by around 210 MW to 3.72 GW. Coal production was little changed and nuclear generation remained broadly stable.
The tightening came despite a substantial narrowing of the Hungary-Germany differential. German day-ahead power rose to around €176.63/MWh, while HUPX declined to €219.62/MWh, cutting the Hungarian premium to about €43/MWh from more than €100/MWh a day earlier.
The compression reduced the immediate price incentive for west-to-east trading but did not remove SEE’s physical requirement for imports.
Hungary remained structurally short, with consumption of about 4.74 GW compared with domestic generation of roughly 3.39 GW, resulting in net imports of approximately 1.35 GW. Hungary continued to act simultaneously as an importing market and an important transit point for regional flows. f
Romania recorded one of the largest national deficits. Consumption reached around 5.70 GW, while generation fell to 4.13 GW, widening net imports to about 1.57 GW from just under 1 GW a day earlier.
The Romanian deficit kept OPCOM closely aligned with HUPX, with only around €0.23/MWh separating the two markets.
Greece also swung sharply toward imports. The system moved from an average net export position of around 452 MW to net imports of approximately 228 MW, while generation dropped by almost 800 MW to about 5.14 GW. The tighter balance coincided with the strongest day-on-day price increase in the region, pushing HENEX to €213.62/MWh.
Serbia remained a net importer but improved its physical balance. Consumption increased to around 3.48 GW, while generation climbed to approximately 2.95 GW, narrowing average net imports to 531 MW from 628 MW the previous day.
SEEPEX nevertheless rose to €207.90/MWh, about €11.70/MWh below HUPX. Serbia therefore remained cheaper than Hungary despite the increase in its domestic clearing price.
Bulgaria remained one of the region’s important exporting systems, but its average exports dropped sharply to around 706 MW from more than 1.5 GW a day earlier as domestic consumption increased and generation declined. The smaller Bulgarian surplus reduced another source of readily available electricity for neighbouring markets.
The Sept. 25 session highlighted the increasingly important role of renewable volatility in determining short-term SEE electricity prices. A fall of almost 1.6 GW in wind output was enough to materially increase cross-border import requirements despite stronger gas and hydro generation.
With Romania and Hungary carrying large structural deficits and Greece moving back into imports, regional prices remain exposed to further weak-wind periods. The narrowing HU-DE spread reduced one layer of market stress, but the underlying physical balance across SEE stayed tight.
