SEE power markets are entering the third quarter with a different pricing logic from the one that dominated the energy crisis period. Gas still matters, but Week 25 showed that electricity prices can rise even when gas weakens. TTF futures fell 14.8% to an average of €41.76/MWh, yet most regional power markets moved higher. The stronger driver was not fuel cost, but physical electricity balance.
That balance is becoming more difficult as summer demand rises. Regional consumption increased 3.1% to 16.34 TWh, with cooling load beginning to shape afternoon and evening price formation. At the same time, hydropower declined 4.7%, wind output fell 4.4%, and thermal generation rose 19.4%. The system needed more dispatchable capacity even with cheaper gas.
Q3 pricing will therefore be defined by temperature, hydro availability, wind conditions and cross-border congestion. Italy will remain the premium sink when hydro and wind weaken. Hungary, Romania and Croatia are likely to remain exposed to Central European scarcity. Serbia will be pulled between its domestic coal-hydro balance and higher-priced neighbouring markets.
The main downside risk for prices will come from strong solar output, soft weekend demand and hydro recovery. The main upside risk will come from heatwaves, weak wind, constrained hydro and evening ramp scarcity. The market is moving toward a summer structure in which daily averages hide the real commercial risk: the price of firm delivery after sunset.
