Southeast Europe’s August oil market highlighted two distinct investment priorities for the region’s refining sector. Serbia remained focused on conventional fuel security and logistics resilience, while Romania continued to direct capital toward hydrogen and lower-carbon fuels.
At Serbia’s Pančevo refinery, operated by NIS, crude processing began August at approximately 11,000 tonnes per day before increasing to almost 13,000 tonnes per day by the end of the month. Diesel demand reached around 200,000 tonnes, with domestic refining supplying nearly 160,000 tonnes and approximately 32,000 tonnes imported.
Low Danube water levels complicated the import process, forcing almost half of the imported fuel volumes to be transported by rail. The disruption highlighted the strategic importance of not only refinery capacity, but also the logistics infrastructure required to move crude and refined products through the region.
For Serbia, the challenge was therefore broader than securing access to international oil. The ability to maintain supply depended on whether crude and products could move reliably through available transport routes under increasingly difficult operating conditions.
Sanctions added another layer of uncertainty. US authorities extended NIS’s operating licence until September 30, allowing crude imports, refining and transactions required to maintain supply continuity to continue. MOL also received US authorisation to continue negotiations over the potential acquisition of a majority stake in NIS during the same period.
This leaves NIS exposed to a combination of operational, logistical and geopolitical considerations. The company’s strategic value is therefore being assessed not only as a refining and fuel-distribution system, but also through the unresolved questions surrounding ownership and sanctions exposure.
Romania is pursuing a different strategy. OMV Petrom completed delivery of modules for a second 35 MW green-hydrogen electrolyser at its Petrobrazi refinery. Together with another unit, planned electrolyser capacity will reach 55 MW, with expected green-hydrogen production of approximately 8,000 tonnes per year.
The hydrogen is intended to support refinery operations as well as a planned 250,000-tonne-per-year SAF/HVO facility, linking refinery investment directly to the emerging lower-carbon fuels market. The second electrolyser is supported by approximately €29 million in Romanian recovery-plan funding.
The contrast between Pančevo and Petrobrazi illustrates how the region’s refining investment landscape is beginning to diverge. Serbia is prioritising resilience of conventional fuel supply, while Romania is positioning existing refining infrastructure for a lower-carbon European fuel system.
These strategies address different risks, but both require significant capital. For traditional refining, the critical variables increasingly include crude access, transport resilience, sanctions and ownership stability. For lower-carbon projects, the focus shifts toward technology, policy support, hydrogen economics and access to emerging SAF and renewable-fuel markets.
The long-term value of Southeast European refineries will therefore depend increasingly on their ability to combine security of supply, logistics resilience, stable ownership structures and credible pathways into lower-carbon fuels. The region’s refining assets are no longer being evaluated solely on how much conventional fuel they can produce, but on how effectively they can adapt to a changing European energy system.
