Serbian day-ahead electricity prices fell for delivery on 2 October, bucking increases across most neighbouring markets and widening the discount to Hungary, while sharp evening peaks showed that cheaper daily averages offered limited protection against hourly supply costs.
SEEPEX settled at €137.92/MWh, down €12.30/MWh from the previous day. Hungary’s HUPX rose €7.60/MWh to €171.27/MWh, leaving Serbian electricity €33.35/MWh cheaper. That gap widened by about €20/MWh in one session.
Romania also moved lower, slipping €2.60/MWh to €161.91/MWh. Elsewhere, prices strengthened. Slovenia reached €188.30/MWh, up €17.50/MWh, while Croatia gained €9.30/MWh to €178.66/MWh.
The divergence increased the potential value of supplying higher-priced markets from Serbia and the eastern Balkans. Realisable margins, however, depend on hourly price differences, transmission capacity and the cost of securing cross-border access.
Montenegro’s BELEN rose €28.70/MWh to €142.87/MWh, reversing much of its recent weakness. Albania recorded the largest daily increase, climbing €61/MWh to €158.90/MWh, while North Macedonia advanced €20.80/MWh to €136.75/MWh.
Despite those gains, all three remained below Hungary. Montenegro traded at a €28.40/MWh discount to HUPX, Albania at €12.37/MWh and North Macedonia at €34.52/MWh.
Greece remained the cheapest market in the report at €120.52/MWh, although its daily average rose €9.40/MWh. Bulgaria increased €3.80/MWh to €138.63/MWh, leaving both markets substantially below Hungary and the western part of the region.
The stronger prices came alongside an improving aggregate supply balance. Forecast average demand across Hungary and southeastern Europe eased to 29,086 MW, about 297 MW lower than the previous day. The region’s net export position increased to 593 MW, from 248 MW.
Forecast solar generation rose by 1,731 MW to 6,539 MW, more than offsetting a 1,016 MW decline in wind output to 4,923 MW. The combined renewable increase therefore coincided with lower demand, although its effect varied considerably between markets and delivery hours.
Net imports from Austria and Slovakia fell to 132 MW, from 479 MW. Commercial exports towards Italy remained substantial at 1,359 MW, slightly below the previous day’s 1,381 MW.
Italy’s national price averaged €216.17/MWh, maintaining a sizeable premium over Balkan markets. Germany stood at €200.50/MWh and Austria at €198.69/MWh, reinforcing the broader east-west price divide.
Daily averages concealed pronounced intraday volatility. Serbia’s hourly prices ranged from €19.40/MWh to €280/MWh, with the maximum in hour 20. Its peak-period average was €101.30/MWh, well below the €174.60/MWh off-peak average.
Montenegro showed a similar pattern, ranging from €15/MWh to €258.90/MWh. Greece briefly fell to minus €1/MWh, yet reached €240.70/MWh later in the day. Croatia’s maximum climbed to €315.10/MWh.
Those profiles underline the commercial importance of when electricity is produced and consumed. Solar-heavy daytime supply can depress prices during conventional peak hours, while evening demand commands substantially higher values.
Forward prices also firmed. Hungarian November power rose €3/MWh to €208/MWh, while week 41 increased to €199.50/MWh. November gas advanced €1.50/MWh to €75.50/MWh, and carbon allowances edged up to €85.64 per tonne.
For Serbian buyers, the lower daily settlement reduced average procurement costs. But an evening maximum of €280/MWh left the sharper message: the widening discount to neighbouring markets did little to remove the cost of covering demand after solar output faded.
