Serbia is preparing emergency fuel-supply measures while simultaneously advancing a longer-term crude pipeline from Hungary, as uncertainty persists over whether the US Office of Foreign Assets Control will extend the licence allowing NIS to continue operating beyond 28 August.
The immediate concern is how Serbian fuel supply would function if another waiver is not granted.
Authorities and NIS are evaluating refinery inventories, processing rates and the ability to continue receiving crude through Croatia’s JANAF pipeline.
The government is also examining alternative routes for importing finished petroleum products if refinery output has to be reduced.
That planning is intended to determine how much replacement fuel other suppliers could deliver to Serbia and through which channels.
Energy Minister Dubravka Đedović has indicated that a decision on the waiver may come only shortly before the existing authorisation expires.
The immediate sanctions issue has reinforced the strategic importance of diversifying Serbia’s crude supply infrastructure.
A new pipeline between the Hungarian border and Novi Sad could begin construction before the end of 2026, subject to completion of the necessary procedures.
Transnafta has already launched the construction tender.
The planned line would have annual capacity of around 5.5 million tonnes and is expected to require approximately two and a half years to complete.
The project is not intended to replace JANAF.
Instead, Serbia wants a second major crude corridor capable of reducing dependence on a single import route.
That distinction is important because domestic oil production cannot cover Serbian demand. Long-term supply security therefore depends on a combination of infrastructure diversity, multiple suppliers and alternative commercial arrangements.
The Hungarian corridor would not resolve an immediate disruption to NIS operations because construction will take several years.
Near-term security continues to depend on crude inventories, JANAF deliveries, refinery operating capability and the availability of imported finished products.
But the sanctions episode has exposed the strategic vulnerability created when most imported refinery feedstock depends on a limited number of channels.
The market is consequently dealing with two separate timelines.
The 28 August deadline determines immediate refinery and fuel-market risk.
The proposed 5.5 million tonne/year Hungary-Novi Sad pipeline represents the structural response, intended to give Serbia greater flexibility over both crude origin and transport route in future supply disruptions.
Djedovic said Serbia had completed its part of the documentation and negotiations related to NIS, with further developments dependent on other parties and potentially requiring discussions at the highest political level.
The immediate uncertainty therefore remains unresolved, but Serbia’s longer-term direction is increasingly clear: maintaining JANAF while developing a second crude corridor rather than replacing one dependency with another.
