Serbia expects domestic fuel supplies to remain stable through August despite exceptionally low Danube water levels disrupting product imports and increasing transport costs.
Mining and Energy Minister Dubravka Đedović Handanović reviewed the supply position with NIS chief executive Kiril Tyurdenev, focusing on refinery output, inventories, rail alternatives and the availability of strategic reserves.
Diesel demand is forecast to reach approximately 200,000 tonnes in August, making it the strongest month of the year. Summer travel, agriculture and freight activity are combining to place additional pressure on the distribution system.
Navigation restrictions have delayed river shipments at the same time as fuel prices in Mediterranean markets remain elevated. Imports fell to very low levels in July, and similar logistical conditions are expected to continue during August.
NIS has responded by increasing production at the Pančevo refinery. The facility is processing approximately 11,000 tonnes of crude oil per day, equivalent to around 330,000 tonnes during August. Management described this as the maximum achievable level under the company’s current one-month US sanctions waiver, valid until 28 August.
NIS plans to increase processing capacity to approximately 13,000 tonnes per day in the coming months. At that rate, monthly throughput could approach 390,000 tonnes, depending on the operating schedule and crude-supply availability.
Jet-fuel inventories are sufficient to cover approximately six weeks of domestic demand, while petrol production and distribution remain uninterrupted. NIS expects combined diesel and petrol sales to reach their highest August level in five years.
Serbia also retains strategic fuel reserves that can be released if commercial inventories or refinery supply become insufficient. The government is monitoring river conditions, rail capacity and alternative routes, but the immediate supply position remains dependent on sustained refinery operation and continued access to crude oil.
The Danube disruption has therefore shifted the centre of supply security from imported products towards domestic refining. Pančevo’s operating reliability and the continuation of NIS’s sanctions authorisation remain more important than headline inventory volumes alone.
