In the last week of August, electricity prices across the main European markets saw significant increases compared to the previous week. Italy’s IPEX market experienced the smallest percentage rise at 9.0%, while France’s EPEX SPOT market saw the largest surge, with prices increasing by 82%. Other markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting also recorded price hikes, ranging from 22% in the Nordic countries’ Nord Pool market to 69% in Belgium’s EPEX SPOT market.
For the week, average electricity prices exceeded €75/MWh in most of the analyzed European markets, with the exception of the Nordic market, which had a notably lower average of €9.06/MWh. Italy registered the highest weekly average at €134.35/MWh. Prices in the remaining markets ranged from €78.95/MWh in France to €108.93/MWh in Spain and Portugal’s MIBEL market.
Hourly price trends also varied. The Nordic market experienced negative prices on Monday, August 26, while the German, Belgian, and Dutch markets saw negative hourly prices on August 31 and September 1. The lowest hourly price of the week was recorded in the Belgian market at €53.61/MWh on Sunday, September 1, between 13:00 and 14:00. In contrast, the highest hourly prices were observed in the Dutch and German markets on Thursday, August 29, with prices reaching €278.49/MWh and €289.27/MWh, respectively. These were the highest prices in these markets since late June in Germany and late September 2023 in the Netherlands.
Several factors contributed to the rise in electricity prices during the last week of August. The increase in weekly average gas prices, coupled with higher electricity demand and reduced wind energy production across most markets, played a significant role. Additionally, the decline in solar energy production in the Iberian Peninsula and Italy further drove up prices in the MIBEL and IPEX markets.
Looking ahead to the first week of September, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting predicts that prices could continue to rise in most European markets. However, a reduction in demand, combined with increased solar energy production in Spain and a notable rise in wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula, is expected to lead to lower prices in the MIBEL market, AleaSoft reports.
