SEEPEX day-ahead prices rose sharply on 13 July, with the baseload average reaching €97.53/MWh, up 34.3% from Sunday’s €72.62/MWh. The peak-load average stood at €78.83/MWh, while traded day-ahead volume reached 15,746.3 MWh. Average Serbian electricity demand was indicated at approximately 3,395 MW, compared with 3,188 MW on Sunday.
The hourly price profile was more significant than the baseload average. SEEPEX fell to €29/MWh at 09:00 and remained around €50–52/MWh through much of the central solar generation window. Prices then climbed sharply, reaching €129.95/MWh at 17:00, €174/MWh at 19:00 and a daily maximum of €189.84/MWh at 20:00.
The resulting minimum-to-maximum spread was approximately €160.84/MWh. Even capturing only half of that theoretical spread would provide a battery with a gross daily arbitrage envelope of roughly €80/MWh, before accounting for round-trip efficiency losses, degradation, market fees, balancing exposure and dispatch constraints.
Serbia remained substantially cheaper than the coupled Central European markets. The SEEPEX baseload average was approximately €28.37/MWh below Hungary, €28.48/MWh below Slovenia, €22.19/MWh below Croatia and €16.93/MWh below Romania. This price differential suggests that Serbia was not the regional marginal price-setting zone for most of the day, although evening prices still approached levels typically associated with gas-fired generation, imports and constrained flexible capacity.
No negative-price interval was recorded in the published SEEPEX hourly profile. However, the €29/MWh morning low confirms that solar cannibalisation is no longer limited to weekends or exceptionally weak-demand days. Unshaped Serbian solar PPAs therefore remain exposed to lower capture prices than baseload contracts, while wind projects continue to have a materially different generation profile and should not be valued using solar capture-price assumptions.
A consistent market-wide intraday volume-weighted price was not publicly available at the morning cut-off. The day-ahead curve therefore remains the clearest executable market signal. Intraday volatility is likely to be concentrated around afternoon cloud cover and temperature forecasts, wind generation deviations and the steep 17:00–21:00 net-load ramp.
