Serbia moved from being a net electricity exporter in Week 25 to a marginal net importer in Week 26 (22–28 June 2026), marking one of the most significant country-level developments across Southeast Europe’s electricity markets. The transition came as electricity demand increased by 12.5% week on week, forcing the domestic power system to rely on higher thermal generation and improved hydroelectric output to meet rising consumption. At the same time, SEEPEX wholesale prices climbed to an average of €110.77/MWh, representing a 29.2% weekly increase and firmly placing Serbia within the region’s tightening summer market.
Serbia’s electricity system has historically depended on a combination of lignite baseload generation, hydroelectric flexibility and strategic cross-border interconnections to manage seasonal fluctuations in demand. The latest market data indicate that this model remains effective but is becoming increasingly exposed to regional market pressures. Lignite-fired generation increased by 17.9%, reinforcing coal’s role as the backbone of Serbia’s electricity supply during periods of elevated cooling demand. Meanwhile, hydropower production surged by 121.5%, although the increase came from a relatively low base and proved insufficient to prevent the system from shifting into a tighter supply-demand balance.
The change in Serbia’s import position is particularly important because the country is interconnected with several of the region’s highest-priced electricity markets. During the week, Hungary averaged nearly €150/MWh, Romania approached the same level, Croatia recorded another sharp increase, while Bulgaria remained a key regional trading partner. As Serbia moved from exporting electricity to relying on imports during a period of intense summer demand, domestic market participants became increasingly exposed to higher regional wholesale prices, cross-border congestion and transmission capacity constraints.
Beyond the weekly import balance, the timing of electricity imports has become equally important. Evening peak hours, when cooling demand remains high and solar generation rapidly declines, are increasingly defining wholesale price formation across Southeast Europe. Electricity imported during these hours can be considerably more expensive than implied by weekly average prices. This changing market structure strengthens the business case for demand-side flexibility, battery energy storage systems (BESS), flexible industrial consumption strategies and more sophisticated peak-hour hedging mechanisms. It also increases the value of renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs) that incorporate hourly balancing and delivery profiles rather than relying solely on annual energy volumes.
For industrial electricity consumers, Serbia’s Week 26 performance highlights the growing importance of managing exposure to high-value peak hours rather than focusing exclusively on average baseload prices. While the weekly market averaged €110.77/MWh, actual prices during the evening demand ramp were significantly higher, increasing procurement risks for large consumers. At the same time, the evolving market environment creates additional revenue opportunities for flexible generators, battery operators and assets capable of supplying electricity during peak demand periods or providing balancing services to the grid.
Looking ahead, Serbia’s electricity market outlook for July will largely depend on several critical variables, including air temperatures, the operational availability of EPS thermal power plants, hydro reservoir levels, regional import prices and market developments in Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania. Week 26 clearly demonstrated that Serbia is no longer insulated from the tightening regional electricity market. Instead, it has become an integral part of Southeast Europe’s broader summer scarcity pattern, where rising cooling demand, constrained flexibility and stronger cross-border price transmission are increasingly shaping wholesale market dynamics.
Elevated by Virtu.Energy
