Day-ahead electricity prices in Serbia jumped by €47.20/MWh to €150.18/MWh for October 1, as Hungary, Romania and the northern Balkan markets strengthened while Albania and Montenegro moved lower.
The divergence widened regional trading spreads despite forecasts for higher renewable generation and slightly weaker overall consumption. Germany’s sharper price increase also reversed Hungary’s premium over the German market, accompanying a reduction in electricity imports from Austria and Slovakia.
Hungary’s HUPX settled at €163.72/MWh, up €18.10/MWh, while Romania’s OPCOM rose €20.20/MWh to €164.48/MWh. Their narrow €0.76/MWh spread contrasted with substantially larger differences across the southern markets.
Slovenia climbed €21.70/MWh to €170.77/MWh, and Croatia gained €21.40/MWh to €169.38/MWh. Both remained above Hungary, with premiums of around €7/MWh and €6/MWh, respectively.
Serbia’s increase was the largest among the southeast European exchanges covered. It nevertheless retained a €13.54/MWh discount to Hungary, while its projected net imports averaged 735 MW. Hungary and Croatia also remained net importers, at 995 MW and 896 MW, respectively.
The southern markets showed a different pattern. Albania’s ALPEX fell €48.50/MWh to €97.94/MWh, the lowest price in the surveyed markets. Montenegro’s BELEN eased €1.70/MWh to €114.22/MWh.
Greece rose just €1.60/MWh to €111.17/MWh, Bulgaria gained €1.10/MWh to €134.86/MWh, and North Macedonia increased €7.80/MWh to €115.91/MWh.
Hungary consequently traded €52.55/MWh above Greece and nearly €66/MWh above Albania. These daily average spreads signal potential value for cross-border trading, although executable margins depend on hourly prices, transmission capacity and delivery costs.
Greece and Bulgaria were projected to remain substantial net exporters, averaging 1,826 MW and 1,340 MW, respectively. Their lower prices alongside exports illustrate the uneven distribution of supply across the region.
Across Hungary and southeast Europe, the aggregate balance shifted from 226 MW of net imports on September 30 to 248 MW of net exports for October 1. Forecast consumption slipped by 80 MW to 29,382 MW.
Solar generation was forecast to rise by 1,983 MW to 6,759 MW, more than offsetting a 383 MW decline in wind output to 4,937 MW. Combined wind and solar production therefore increased by about 1,600 MW.
Those forecasts provide little support for a region-wide demand-driven explanation of the price rise. Establishing the cause of individual market moves would require hourly generation, plant availability and transmission data.
The clearest external change came from Germany, where electricity rose €54.40/MWh to €195.18/MWh. Hungary moved from a premium of roughly €4.90/MWh on the previous day to a €31.46/MWh discount.
At the same time, forecast imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia fell by 686 MW to 479 MW. Italy remained the highest-priced surveyed market at €209.95/MWh, while net flows towards Italy averaged 1,381 MW.
Forward prices also strengthened. Hungarian week 41 power rose €3.50/MWh to €198.50/MWh, while week 42 gained €7/MWh to €206/MWh. November power increased to €198.50/MWh, around €35/MWh above the October 1 spot average.
Gas added cost pressure: Austrian CEGH rose to €73.73/MWh, and Greek gas reached €66.45/MWh. Carbon allowances eased to €85.09 a tonne, offering some relief to fossil-fuel generators.
For buyers, the immediate exposure remained concentrated in Serbia and the northern markets. Higher forecast renewable output improved the regional balance, but it did not prevent a €47.20/MWh daily increase in Serbian electricity costs.
