Electricity.Trade’s May 2026 market analysis highlights Serbia as one of the most significant electricity trading stories in the Western Balkans. The average day-ahead price on the SEEPEX exchange increased to €96.63/MWh, rising 5.59% from April and 8.50% compared with May 2025. While the price increase was more moderate than in several neighbouring markets, the stronger signal came from trading activity. SEEPEX recorded 566.3 GWh of traded volume during the month, up 16.99% month on month and 13.31% year on year, indicating improving market liquidity even as Serbia shifted into a net electricity importer.
The country’s physical market balance changed significantly in May. Serbia recorded 422.97 GWh of net electricity imports as electricity demand increased and domestic hydropower production weakened. Power consumption rose by 4.26% from April, marking one of the strongest monthly demand increases across Southeast Europe. At the same time, hydropower generation declined by 31.68%, reducing one of the system’s key sources of operational flexibility. Renewable generation increased by only 2.90%, which was insufficient to compensate for the sharp fall in hydro output and stronger electricity demand.
Serbia’s electricity generation mix continued to be dominated by coal and lignite, which accounted for 56.99% of total generation in May. Hydropower contributed 33.49%, renewables 8.26%, while natural gas represented just 0.43% of the generation mix. This structure gives Serbia a distinct market profile compared with countries where gas-fired generation largely determines wholesale prices. Although coal provides a stable baseload supply, reduced hydropower output limits system flexibility, increasing reliance on imports during periods of higher demand.
Cross-border electricity trade became increasingly important throughout the month. Serbia imported electricity from Hungary, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, while exports were directed only to Croatia. The broad range of import sources demonstrates the country’s growing integration with neighbouring electricity markets and highlights the importance of cross-border transmission capacity, congestion management and efficient day-ahead trading for balancing domestic supply and demand.
Overall, May 2026 underscored Serbia’s transition toward a more liquid and regionally integrated electricity market. Rising SEEPEX trading volumes reflect continued market development, while increased import dependence during a period of weak hydropower generation illustrates the growing influence of regional market conditions on domestic price formation. The combination of coal-based generation, weather-driven hydro variability, cross-border electricity flows and improving exchange liquidity is increasingly shaping Serbia’s wholesale electricity market and strengthening its role within the Southeast European trading landscape.
