Week 25 demonstrated that higher LNG availability does not automatically translate into lower electricity prices. LNG imports into Greece increased by 19.7% to 722.23 GWh, while Italian LNG inflows rose by 5.27% to 4,004.02 GWh. Croatia’s LNG volumes remained broadly stable at 635.84 GWh. Despite these developments, electricity prices increased across several regional markets, including Italy, Croatia, Hungary, Romania and Serbia, highlighting the complex relationship between gas supply and power pricing.
This dynamic underscores the importance of an LNG-to-power pass-through monitor. The key question is no longer whether LNG is available, but whether additional gas supply is capable of reducing marginal electricity prices or merely supporting greater gas-fired generation during periods of market tightness. Availability alone does not guarantee affordability if system conditions continue to require high-cost thermal generation.
Italy provides one of the clearest examples of this relationship. Despite stronger LNG inflows, the Italian wholesale electricity market averaged €127.69/MWh during Week 25. Lower hydro and wind generation increased reliance on thermal power plants, forcing gas-fired generation to play a larger role in meeting demand. In this case, LNG enhanced fuel availability and system reliability, but it did not prevent elevated electricity prices because the market still required significant firm generation.
Greece experienced a more balanced outcome. Higher LNG imports, stronger renewable generation and flexible gas-fired capacity worked together to support system stability and help reduce wholesale electricity prices to €85.50/MWh. The Greek experience illustrates that LNG can contribute to lower power prices when combined with favourable renewable output and sufficient operational flexibility across the generation mix.
Croatia represents a third market pattern. Although LNG inflows remained relatively stable, electricity prices increased by 11.2%, driven by stronger demand, higher import dependence and weaker renewable generation. The case highlights that gas supply security alone cannot eliminate exposure to broader electricity market pressures when supply-demand fundamentals become less favourable.
An effective LNG-to-power monitor should track multiple variables simultaneously, including LNG imports, gas hub prices, gas-fired generation output, wholesale electricity prices and periods of hourly scarcity. Such an approach helps distinguish between the role of LNG as a source of fuel-cost relief and its value as a flexible resource supporting power system reliability during stressed market conditions.
For policymakers, the broader lesson is clear: while LNG infrastructure enhances energy security and resilience, affordable electricity depends on a wider set of factors, including energy storage, grid development, renewable generation, demand-side flexibility and efficient dispatchable resources. For traders and market participants, LNG data becomes most valuable when analysed alongside power generation behaviour and electricity market fundamentals rather than in isolation.
