European gas markets eased during calendar week 13, but the decline was modest and accompanied by persistent volatility, reflecting an underlying structure still dominated by geopolitical uncertainty and fragile supply dynamics.
The Dutch TTF front-month contract averaged €54.59/MWh, marking a 1.9% week-on-week decrease, with prices moving within a relatively wide intra-week range. The week opened at elevated levels of €56.68/MWh, before falling sharply to a low of €52.81/MWh mid-week. A brief rebound followed, with prices rising by 4.5% on 26 March, before easing again toward the end of the week.
The trajectory of TTF prices during CW13 reflects a market struggling to reconcile short-term supply signals with broader geopolitical risks. Early-week declines were driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, as diplomatic signals suggested the potential for de-escalation between the United States and Iran.
However, this sentiment proved fragile. Market participants remained acutely aware of the potential for renewed escalation, particularly given ongoing threats to critical energy infrastructure and shipping routes. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global LNG flows transit, remains a focal point for risk assessment.
At the same time, supply-side developments introduced additional uncertainty. Reports of outages at major LNG export facilities in Australia, triggered by extreme weather conditions, raised concerns about short-term availability. Although the disruptions were not expected to have an immediate large-scale impact on European supply, they reinforced the perception of a tight and vulnerable global LNG market.
From a structural perspective, the gas market continues to operate under a “risk premium regime.” Even in the absence of immediate supply disruptions, prices remain supported by the possibility of future shocks. This dynamic is particularly evident in forward curves, which have shown limited downside despite recent spot market softness.
Storage levels also remain a critical factor. While European gas inventories are not at critically low levels, they are below the five-year average in key markets such as Germany and the Netherlands. This creates an additional layer of support for prices, particularly as the market begins to focus on the upcoming injection season.
The interplay between gas and power markets remains strong. The modest decline in TTF prices during CW13 contributed to lower electricity prices across SEE, but the effect was limited by the persistence of the geopolitical premium.
Looking ahead, traders expect volatility to remain elevated. The gas market is increasingly sensitive to both geopolitical developments and global LNG dynamics, with price movements likely to remain reactive rather than trend-driven.
