Türkiye was the dominant volume story in Southeast Europe’s electricity market during Week 23, with a sharp demand surge reshaping the regional balance and forcing a steep increase in domestic thermal generation. Yet the price effect remained unusual: Turkish day-ahead prices rebounded strongly in percentage terms but stayed far below the rest of the SEE market.
Regional electricity demand increased 8.2% week on week to 15.15 TWh, the highest level recorded in recent weeks. The increase was overwhelmingly driven by Türkiye, where consumption surged 31.0%, adding around 1.53 TWh of additional demand. This was large enough to dominate the entire SEE demand picture and offset declines in several other markets.
The likely drivers were rising temperatures, stronger cooling load and firmer economic activity. Early June often marks the point when power systems begin shifting from spring shoulder-season conditions into summer load patterns. In Türkiye, that shift appeared especially sharp. The result was a major increase in dispatch requirements and a clear change in the regional electricity balance.
Türkiye responded with a large thermal-generation increase. Thermal output more than doubled, rising 103.2% week on week to 2.03 TWh. Coal generation increased 55.7%, while gas-fired production jumped 278.1%. That gas-fired surge is especially important because it shows that flexible thermal capacity was needed to meet the sudden rise in demand and compensate for weaker wind conditions.
Hydropower also played a major role. Turkish hydro generation increased 15.4%, or around 356 GWh, reaching 2.66 TWh. This made Türkiye the main driver of the regional hydro increase, as total SEE hydro generation rose 10.1% week on week to 3.97 TWh. Without Türkiye’s stronger hydro output, the regional system would have been more dependent on thermal generation and cross-border imports.
Variable renewables offered only partial relief. Türkiye was the only SEE market where total variable renewable output increased, rising 1.2%. This was supported by a strong 61.0% surge in solar generation, which offset lower wind output. The solar increase helped during daylight hours, but it could not remove the need for evening thermal ramping as cooling demand and residual load remained high.
The striking point is that Türkiye’s price remained very low by regional standards. The weekly average rose from €4.03/MWh to €22.53/MWh, but even after that 459% increase, it was still far below Greece at €89.25/MWh, Serbia at €99.63/MWh, Bulgaria at €100.83/MWh, Hungary at €103.15/MWh and Italy at €128.09/MWh. In other words, Türkiye experienced a domestic demand shock without entering the normal SEE price range.
That structural discount reflects market design, local supply balance, hydro and thermal availability, and the fact that Türkiye remains only partially integrated with the wider European day-ahead price formation logic. For SEE traders, Türkiye’s demand matters because it affects flows, fuel demand and regional thermal dispatch, but Turkish prices do not yet behave like a fully converged SEE price node.
Türkiye also remained a net exporter during the week, although exports declined 13.6% compared with Week 22. That is another important signal. Even with demand rising sharply, the Turkish system still had enough supply to maintain net exports, supported by hydro, solar and a major thermal response. This helped prevent the domestic price from moving toward neighbouring market levels.
The broader regional effect was still bullish. Türkiye’s higher demand contributed to the 8.2% SEE demand increase, while its thermal ramp helped lift regional thermal generation by 24.5% week on week to 4.22 TWh. The increased reliance on conventional generation reinforced the role of fuel prices and carbon-linked marginal costs in the wider region, even if Turkish spot prices remained unusually low.
For gas markets, Türkiye’s thermal shift is also relevant. A 278.1% increase in gas-fired power generation implies stronger power-sector gas burn at a time when European gas prices were already elevated and TurkStream maintenance was taking place. Türkiye sits at the intersection of electricity demand, gas transit and regional supply security, so its power-sector movements can carry implications beyond its domestic market.
The Week 23 data show that Türkiye can change the SEE electricity volume balance without necessarily transmitting a comparable price signal. That makes it both central and exceptional. It is central because its demand, hydro and thermal movements dominate regional aggregates. It is exceptional because its price level remains far below neighbouring markets. For regional analysts, that means Türkiye should be tracked as a physical-balancing force, not simply as another price zone in the SEE stack.
