The first annual capacity auction under the upgraded Vertical Gas Corridor is expected to provide an important signal of commercial interest in the project, as Greece’s gas transmission operator DESFA and market participants anticipate strong demand following significant reductions in transportation fees.
The auction, scheduled for 6 July, will offer annual gas transport capacity at the Sidirokastro interconnection point between Greece and Bulgaria for deliveries starting in October, marking the beginning of the new European gas year. According to DESFA, more than 30% of the nearly 100 GWh of available capacity could be booked in the first round.
Following an estimated 50% reduction in transit fees along the route, a booking rate above 30% would translate into annual volumes exceeding 1 billion cubic meters, according to market estimates. Total flows are expected to be higher overall, as a significant share of gas is likely to continue moving through short-term contracts alongside annual bookings.
Market interest is expected primarily from buyers in Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary, while Ukraine is currently not seen as a major destination for corridor volumes. Further planned reductions in fees on the Romanian section are expected to enhance the competitiveness of the route and strengthen regional utilization.
Attention is also focused on Venture Global, which controls around 25% of the regasification capacity at the Alexandroupoli LNG terminal. Any decision by the US LNG supplier to channel cargoes through the corridor could significantly increase throughput and improve long-term utilization rates.
At the same time, infrastructure expansion continues. Transport capacity between Greece and Bulgaria is set to increase from 2.4 to 3.1 billion cubic meters per year starting 1 July, with a further expansion to 3.6 billion cubic meters already planned for the near future.
Despite positive expectations ahead of the winter season, uncertainty remains due to intensifying competition between European and Asian buyers for US LNG cargoes, a dynamic that continues to support elevated spot gas prices across global markets.
