During the fourth week of February, Brent oil futures for the Front Month on the ICE market followed a mostly downward trend until Thursday, February 26, when they reached their weekly minimum settlement price of $70.75/bbl. On Friday, February 27, after a 2.4% increase from the previous day, Brent futures rose to their weekly maximum settlement price, $72.48/bbl. According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting data, this was 1.0% higher than the previous Friday and marked the highest price since June 21, 2025.
Throughout the week, downward pressure on Brent prices was linked to concerns about demand due to new US tariffs and the possibility of further OPEC+ production increases. However, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East supported prices toward the end of the week. OPEC+ later agreed to resume production increases in April during its meeting on Sunday, March 1. Despite this, Brent prices are expected to remain sensitive in the first week of March, influenced by the US-Iran conflict and potential disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
TTF gas futures for the Front Month on the ICE market remained above €30/MWh during the fourth week of February. The weekly minimum settlement price was €30.89/MWh on Tuesday, February 24, while the weekly maximum was €32.22/MWh on Thursday, February 26. On Friday, February 27, the settlement price slightly decreased to €31.96/MWh, 0.2% lower than the previous Friday.
Early in the week, high LNG supply and increased renewable generation kept TTF prices below €32/MWh, despite low European storage levels. Towards the end of the week, concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, amid rising Middle East tensions, pushed prices higher. These geopolitical risks may continue to influence TTF gas prices in early March.
For CO₂ emission allowance futures on the EEX market for the December 2026 contract, prices remained above €70/t during the fourth week of February. On Tuesday, February 25, the futures reached the weekly maximum settlement price of €72.60/t. Prices then declined in the final sessions, reaching the weekly minimum settlement price of €70.29/t on Friday, February 27, which represents a 4.7% decrease compared to the previous Friday, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
