Southeast Europe’s day-ahead market fragmented sharply for delivery on Wednesday, 29 July, with drought-exposed western systems moving higher while Bulgaria and Italy weakened.
Serbia recorded the region’s highest principal exchange price at €145.13/MWh, an increase of €28.59/MWh or 24.5 per cent from Tuesday. Montenegro followed at €143.21/MWh, Slovenia at €141.59/MWh and Croatia at €138.73/MWh. Austria settled close to Croatia at €138.18/MWh.
Romania rose almost 18 per cent to €132.87/MWh, marginally above Hungary’s €132.34/MWh. Greece strengthened to €125.60/MWh, while North Macedonia cleared at €114.71/MWh.
Bulgaria moved against the regional trend, falling €7.28/MWh to €101.81/MWh. This opened a €43.32/MWh Serbia–Bulgaria spread and a €41.40/MWh Montenegro–Bulgaria spread. Italy was cheaper still at €98.06/MWh, reversing its normal position as the premium destination for Balkan exports.
The price map indicates that the immediate scarcity is no longer concentrated in Hungary or Italy. Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia and Slovenia are carrying the higher marginal value, reflecting weaker hydropower, constraints on thermal generation and the cost of obtaining replacement electricity through congested corridors.
Romania’s rise incorporates the loss of approximately 700 MW from Cernavodă Unit 1, while Serbia’s position is being shaped by exceptionally poor Danube hydrology. Đerdap 1, the country’s largest hydropower plant, has been producing about 5,000 MWh a day—roughly one-third of its normal daily output. Low river levels have also reduced cooling availability at the Kostolac coal complex and constrained the movement of fuel by barge.
Bulgaria’s lower price does not imply a weak domestic market. Electricity production between 1 January and 26 July increased 5.61 per cent to 25.02 TWh, while consumption rose faster, by 6.54 per cent to 23.56 TWh. The country retained a 1.46 TWh export surplus, but this was below the 1.57 TWh recorded a year earlier.
Hydropower supplied the largest improvement, almost doubling from 1.69 TWh to 3.27 TWh. Renewable generation connected to the transmission network rose 11.87 per cent to 2.62 TWh, while distribution-level renewable output increased 4.14 per cent to 2.48 TWh. Bulgaria can therefore maintain a low short-run marginal price, but faster consumption growth is gradually reducing the volume available for export.
The commercial value of cross-border capacity has consequently rotated towards supplying Serbia, Montenegro and Croatia. A trader holding firm capacity out of Bulgaria can access spreads above €35–€40/MWh on the daily average, although physical losses, nomination limits and intermediate congestion will absorb part of that margin.
