During the week of November 13, daily prices in the main European electricity markets progressively increased. On Friday, November 17, prices exceeded €115/MWh in all markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. However, over the weekend, prices dropped again. As a result, the weekly average in some markets was lower than the previous week. In contrast, in the IPEX market of Italy, the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries and the MIBEL market of Portugal and Spain, averages increased by 4.3%, 26%, 48% and 49%, respectively. In the remaining markets, prices declined between 2.5% in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany and 8.8% in the EPEX SPOT market of France.
In the third week of November, weekly averages were below €95/MWh in most of the analyzed European electricity markets. The exceptions were the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the Italian market, where prices were €101.97/MWh and €126.73/MWh, respectively. In contrast, the French market registered the lowest average price, €83.48/MWh. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €84.35/MWh in the Portuguese market to €91.51/MWh in the Nordic market.
Precisely the Nordic market reached a price of €180.01/MWh on Thursday, November 16, from 17:00 to 18:00. This price was the highest since the first half of March in this market. On the other hand, the German, Belgian, French and Dutch markets registered hourly prices below €2/MWh on November 14 and 19. In the case of the German market, on Tuesday, November 14, there were three hours with negative prices.
During the week of November 13, the increase in the average price of gas and CO2 emission rights had an upward influence on European market prices. Over the weekend, the combination of lower demand and high renewable energy production helped prices to fall in most markets. In the case of the French market, wind energy production increased and demand fell for the week as a whole. This contributed to this market registering the lowest weekly average.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that in the fourth week of November prices in most European electricity markets might increase. Declining wind energy production and rising demand in most markets might contribute to this behaviour. However, the increase in wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula might lead to lower prices in the MIBEL market.