Hydropower production in the Balkan region fell in the two weeks ending March 26, with both run-of-river and reservoir output falling, local hydrological reports and ENTSO-E data showed. Hydro production is likely to drop further in April, but likely not enough to reverse a drop in spot power prices.
Combined hydropower production in Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia fell by 11% to 1.1 TWh in this period, with only Bulgaria and Slovenia registering a gain. Despite strong reservoir production, hydro reserves continued to rise, up 2% over the two-week period to 5.4 TWh combined by March 26, the highest in nine months.
Regional spot power prices continued their downward course, with weekday day-ahead baseload averaging 111 euros/MWh in Hungary and 116 euros/MWh in Romania for March 20-24.
Forward prices likewise fell, shaped in part by a steady decline in natural gas prices. In Hungary, month-ahead closed March 24 at 112 euros/MWh, while Romania closed 5 euros/MWh lower, HUPX and OPCOM data showed.
Run-of-river hydro production across the region is forecast to drop toward the end of March and the first days of April due to falling Danube output in Serbia and Romania, where river levels are forecast to drop below the seasonal norm. The decrease may be short-lived as forecast heavy rains could lift river levels.
