Since 2022, Bulgaria’s energy sector has been facing the challenging task of dealing with unprecedented complexities, driven by both inflationary pressures and geopolitical factors. In the pursuit of enhancing the country’s energy security and transitioning towards a net-zero economy, renewable energy sources are playing an increasingly significant role.
While solar energy has been making faster-than-expected progress, Bulgaria, among EU members, is still in the early stages of developing other renewable sources like wind and bioenergy. As of the end of 2023, Bulgaria stands among the six countries that have not yet submitted an updated and more ambitious National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP).
The 2019 version of Bulgaria’s NECP outlined a national target of 27.09% for the share of renewable sources in gross final energy consumption by 2023. This target was subsequently increased to 29.9% in the update of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), set to be approved by June 2024. Specifically for the electricity sector, Bulgaria’s latest NECP aims for a 30.33% share from renewable sources. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Bulgaria’s installed renewable energy capacity reached 5.205 GW in 2022, accounting for 38.5% of the total installed electricity generation capacity in the country. This marked a substantial 14.9% increase from the 4.532 GW recorded in 2021.
The growth rate in 2022 showed a significant acceleration compared to the previous year when it was at 3.9%. This surge in 2022 positioned Bulgaria as the country with the fastest-expanding renewable capacities among the five largest economies in Southeast Europe (SEE) and Greece, surpassing the growth rates of Greece, Croatia, and Slovenia, which had experienced higher annual rates in 2021. The entire newly installed renewable capacity in Bulgaria in 2022 was attributed to the solar segment. This came as a continuation of the trend contrasting from 2021 where all new installed capacities came from solar except 1 MW, credited to the wind segment.
All other renewable segments remained stagnant in terms of new capacities over the last two years. By the end of 2022, the solar segment in Bulgaria boasted an installed capacity of 1.948 GW, marking a significant rise in its absolute importance within the country’s energy mix. The recent trend of new additions primarily focusing on solar facilities, coupled with the absence of any new hydropower projects, has propelled the solar segment to rapidly catch up with the leader. As of the end of 2023, it has already surpassed other sources, becoming the most crucial contributor to renewable energy in Bulgaria.
In 2023, Bulgaria achieved a noteworthy milestone by joining the ranks of 14 EU member states that added over 1 GW of new solar capacity in a single year, making its debut on this list. Additionally, as per Bulgaria’s Agency for Sustainable Energy Development, the country is estimated to have concluded 2023 with a total installed photovoltaic capacity of 3.9 GW, more than doubling it within a year and surpassing its 3.2 GW target for 2030 seven years ahead of schedule. Bulgaria’s installed solar capacity has nearly quadrupled within three years, surging from slightly over 1 GW in 2020. In Bulgaria, renewable hydropower has stabilised at a total installed capacity of just above 2.5 GW and is expected to remain at this level in the short term.
Meanwhile, the slow development of wind facilities has left this segment trailing behind, with a total installed capacity of around 700 MW. The role of bioenergy, including biogas, remains marginal, accounting for 47 MW, which is less than 1% of the total renewable energy capacity in Bulgaria. The trends in the renewable power sector in Bulgaria align with those at the EU level. In 2022, the combined contribution of wind and solar power in the EU surged to 22% of the total electricity generation, surpassing gas for the first time. This marked a historic milestone as renewables exceeded 40% of the total electricity generation in the bloc.
The growth was notably driven by solar power, with a substantial increase in installation rates. In 2022, 41 GW of solar power generation capacity was added to the grid, compared to 28 GW installed in 2021. The aggregate EU solar power capacity expanded to 209 GW from 168 GW in 2021, with Bulgaria contributing about 1% to the overall capacity.
Source: seenext.org
